Scenarios of global energy usage and climate change: Potential impacts on water temperature and fish growth potential

The types and amount of energy our economies use drives climate-change, but little is known about the effects of altering global energy use on water temperature and fish growth potential (FGP). We developed reach-scale models of stream water temperature using measurements of water temperature, releases of water from reservoir systems, and maps of land cover, geology, soils, and climate analyzed at multiple spatial scales. These models were then applied to all non-tidal, freshwater streams within the Delaware River Basin to assess the effects of climate-change on the FGP of three native and three non-native species under scenarios of global energy use and mix. Percent difference of FGP from current conditions were 4.6, -7.8, -2.4, -7.9, -3.3, and 76.0 (brook trout, juvenile American shad, yellow perch, common carp, smallmouth bass, and brown trout) with reforested riparian zones, and -11.6, 10.9, 4.2, 11.4, 8.0, and -24.0 with 2.5°C of warming produced from the current global energy mix and rate of consumption. Therefore, reforesting riparian zones could counteract a portion of the warming effect on FGP. However, counteraction depended on the region and stream size. This, and additional scenarios of energy usage will be presented.