Tuesday, May 27, 2008
199

A predictive model for anti-degradation monitoring of the Delaware river mainstem

Karen Blocksom1, Joseph E. Flotemersch1, Robert L. Limbeck2, and Erik Silldorff2. (1) National Exposure Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 26 W M.L. King Drive, Cincinnati, OH 45268, (2) Delaware River Basin Commission, 25 State Police Drive, West Trenton, NJ 08628

The non-tidal portion of the Delaware River can be considered to be in minimally disturbed condition, but there is increasing pressure on the watershed.  Thus, the primary goal of this research was to develop a monitoring tool that can be used by the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) to monitor for changes in the macroinvertebrate assemblage that may be a result of human disturbance in the basin.  To this end, we developed a RIVPACS-type predictive model for the river using the conditions in 2006 as a baseline.  We first verified the sections of river that are considered representative of minimal disturbance by the DRBC and National Park Service personnel.  We identified 5 groups of sites using flexible beta clustering based on benthic macroinvertebrate data from riffles, glide/runs, and pools.  We then developed a discriminant model based on maximum velocity, mean water depth, latitude, and a regional indicator variable.  The final predictive model and this approach in general, provide DRBC and the National Park Service with an approach for early detection of changes to the river.  Although this work was reviewed by EPA and approved for publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency policy.


Web Page: predictive modelling, monitoring, macroinvertebrates

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