The Chinese mitten crab is an invasive catadromous species that has populated many European estuaries.  However, despite repeated ‘introductions’, the only established North American population is in the San Francisco Bay Delta.  In established populations, adult mitten crab numbers oscillate dramatically, and large numbers of crabs can have severe environmental impacts.  Extremely little is known about the biology and ecology of juvenile stages, but understanding the factors behind new cohort survival is crucial in understanding what drives the dynamics of the San Francisco Bay population, as well as the ability to predict future impacts of adult crabs.  In this study, we use the only known long-term life-history data set to assess the relative importance of chemical, physical, and biological factors in regulating Chinese mitten crab population dynamics in San Francisco Bay.  Both exploratory regression tree analysis and bivariate data analysis show that concentrations of planktonic zoeae are dictated by interactions between the number of breeding female crabs, the timing of reproduction, and water temperature.  Although there are few options to control or eradicate this nuisance species, its impacts may be minimized if we are able to predict the abundances of adult crabs three to four years into the future.