The science of environmental flows aims to predict the ecological effects of flow alteration to guide the sustainable management of streams and rivers. How ecological processes and patterns vary along gradients of streamflow is well documented, but few studies have quantified the ecological responses of flow change per se. Thus, despite ample commentary about the potential effects of flow alteration, predictive models lack quantitative accuracy.

New research will seek answers to these problems. Ecological theory can direct us to where effects are most likely to be measurable. For example, large changes to the major environmental drivers of river ecosystems (disturbance, temperature, river morphology) are expected to produce pronounced effects. Taking this further, a heuristic model (e.g. Bayes Nets) will be constructed to predict the combinations of ecosystem-type and type of flow-change that are most likely to produce measurable effects. Flow interacts with other major drivers of stream ecosystems, so it cannot be examined in isolation. By predicting which functional traits (populations or life stages) are most susceptible to proposed changes in flow (directly or indirectly), we can better target monitoring efforts. Potential applications for predicting ecosystem response will also be explored.