Tuesday, May 27, 2008
250

A surrogate model for future regional climate change: The current affects of the atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its influence on the ecohydrology of great lakes and new england rivers

Andrew F. Casper1, James A. Gore2, Christy M. Messing2, and Martin H. Kelly3. (1) Aquatic Ecology Branch, USACE-ERDC, Waterways Experiment Station, 3909 Halls Ferry Rd., Vicksburg, MS 39180, (2) Environmental Science & Policy Program, University of South Florida St. Petersburg, 140 6th Ave. South, DAV 258, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, (3) Ecological Evaluation Section, Southwest Florida Water Management District, Brooksville, FL 34604

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a natural sea surface temperature alternation in the Mid-Atlantic.  The AMO has had a strong historically well-documented influence on river discharge in the Southeast US: especially the amount and timing of discharge. Discharge, which shifts markedly between AMO oscillations, quantitatively affects habitat and community structure (Gore et al. presentation, this meeting). New England and the Great Lakes are regions with diverse surface water reliant industries and cities. Surface water management in these regions could have many of its basic assumptions undermined if future shifts in regional climate cannot be effectively assessed. Using past AMO oscillations as a surrogate shows little affect on total annual discharge in New England, however there was a marked effect on the Spring/Fall seasonal discharge.  Similarly there was little difference in annual discharge in Great Lake tributaries , but there was again a notable seasonal response (though this time in Summer) . This work demonstrates how past AMOs can be paired with existing USGS gauge data to predict some future effects of climate on hydrology, habitat, and water quality.  Examples using minimum flows and levels for sport and forage fish habitat will be given.


Web Page: climate change, river, hydrology , fish, habitat